This thread is about the severe weather outbreak forecast for March 14th and 15th 2025. There's moderate tornado potential and high wind potential over the Midwest and Ohio Valley Friday. There's High-end tornado potential over multiple Mississippi and Alabama metros, and Middle Tennessee Saturday. This is an upper echelon system. We gotta help each other out on this one. Share everything you find here. Charts, pictures, resources, warnings etc.

Here's a resource for anyone in the affected areas looking for a place to shelter:

findyourtornadoshelter.com

This could be very bad, but no matter how bad it is, it is survivable. If you don't have adequate shelter, you can seek it out. Remember to put helmets, shoes, and go bags in your safe area. If a major tornado hits a metro area it might be a while before you get help, the last thing you want is a foot laceration or concussion. Please spread this info.

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Here is the latest SPC Guidance:

Day 1 SPC Outlook (Friday) This is now the largest moderate risk area since 04/27/2011

...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely.

Day 1 Tornado Outlook

11,276,189 people under a 10-15% risk of tornadoes with 25 miles of any given point, several of which could be strong to intense

Day 2 (Saturday) SPC Outlook

...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night.

Day 2 Tornado Outlook

24,702,120 people under risk for tornadoes within 25 miles of any given point. \"A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes.\"

Will keep this thread updated with new info as I can. Stay safe everyone!!

Update:

Here's the model (HRRR) most forecasters rely on for accurate storm forecasts. It isn't quite caught up with the main event but it will be soon. Here's another one (NAM) that isn't quite as good but can forecast further out. And Another (FV3 Hi-Res) for good measure. Meteorologists cross reference all of these and more to nail down the exact details of storm behavior.

Here's all those models through a better (albeit more complex) resource:

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Update 2:

Alabama Governor Kay Ivey has issued a state of emergency for all 67 counties ahead of this weekend’s severe weather. He is urging residents to stay alert and prepared for potentially dangerous severe weather this weekend, advising them to closely monitor local forecasts and make necessary preparations in case of adverse conditions. 

https://preview.redd.it/coan9h2l8poe1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=033592539c4ff7f33f1db2dc6f7d9c8e95f65ab0

Update 3:

04/27/2011 is now the number one analog on the database forecasters use to compare current storm systems with past set ups. Most forecasters aren't mincing words, this has the potential to be a historic outbreak.

https://preview.redd.it/e49shljjspoe1.png?width=968&format=png&auto=webp&s=0654f426d6bfee8198de93668d61225a599efb66